Researchers in Israel have found a method to predict the occurrence of earthquakes within 48 hours of the event, and their track record shows an 80 percent accuracy rate. And they can also predict when an earthquake will NOT happen, even in a quake-prone region, with an impressive 85.7 percent success rate. This breakthrough could save thousands of lives and calm the fears of millions.
The findings were published recently in the journal Remote Sensing. The team of researchers was led by Ariel University doctors Yuval Reuveni, Nimrod Inbar, and Lee-Ad Gottlieb. Their research was funded by The Israel Science Foundation and Israel’s Energy Ministry.
The team looked to the skies in order to tune into what was happening on the ground. They studied the Earth’s ionosphere (one of the upper layers of the atmosphere), an electrically charged thin layer that connects with the vacuum of space. After studying large earthquakes—6 or higher on the moment magnitude scale (similar to the Richter scale)—that have occurred in the last 20 years, they discovered a precursor sign in the atmosphere.
The researchers utilized GPS mapping data and then calculated the electron-charge density in a region prior to the earthquake, and their results showed an 80 percent accuracy for predicting a quake. They also had an 85.7 percent accuracy rate for determining that a quake would NOT happen in an area.
It is estimated that earthquakes result in the deaths of about 20,000 people every year. Earthquake-prone countries such as Cuba, Japan, Peru, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, and elsewhere could greatly benefit from this potentially life-saving technology.
